According to UK-based Drewry Maritime Research, the shipping industry could be in-line for a turnaround during the next few years as oil demand from Asia, the Middle East and Latin America drive growth in the tanker market.
However, the market is forecast to remain tough throughout the rest of 2013 as, even though demand is edging up, delivery of new tonnage ordered back in 2007/2008 is still overhanging the market. In addition, demolition of old tonnage is about half of the new tonnage being delivered indicating that oversupply in the market will continue. Demolition of old tonnage during Q4 2012 equalled 11 million dead-weight-tonnes, meanwhile, 26.4 million dwt in new capacity was delivered.
Having said that, according to Drewry, new tonnage ordered during 2012 hit its lowest level in several years. 13 million dwt of new tanker tonnage was ordered during 2012, down from 14.6 million dwt in 2011 and 36 million dwt during 2010.
The research firm expects tanker demand to rise about 5% a year from 2013-2017 to reach 405 million dwt in 2017. However, tanker supply is expected to rise 3% a year for the same period, to reach around 487 million dwt during 2017 — still a state of oversupply for the industry.