The Peak Oil Fallacy

Back in the 1950s, M.King Hubbert, a geologist working for Shell, predicted that oil output from the lower 48 states of America would peak around 1970. Unfortunately, this did not prove to be true but it has lead to almost constant speculation about when the actual oil output around the world will reach its peak.

However, it is now obvious that the brigade touting the date of peak oil, have gone the way of the flat earth society.

Peak oil forecasts have been consistently revised further and further away over the past few decades as more and more oil is discovered.

Oil was supposed to reach a peak back in 2005.

Instead, new forecasts predict a global peak around 2025. North America, which did actually experience peak production during the 70s, is set for another boom and will set another production peak around 2035. Latin America is also set to peak around 2035. European production peaked back in 2000 and is in a steady decline thanks to the North Sea. The Middle East on the other hand has nothing to worry about and should keep churning out cheap, dirty oil at greater rates of production until 2040, when production is set to steadily decline.

Moreover, BP believes that large supplies of natural gas and a slowdown in global demand for fossil fuels, will take the pressure of oil supplies, extending global supply for many decades to come.

Whatever, the outcome, oil is not going to run out any-time soon.

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